citas saludcoop en linea medellin A trader recently asked me about what I think of the popular CNBC guest technician, Abigail Doolittle’s bearish technical analysis. Though she does a thorough job, I see some weakness and
even a possible mistake in her analysis. Now, mind you, I’m not fully
disagreeing with her final analysis, but if one can find weakness in it,
then THAT analysis may not be as valid as it may appear.
riesgos de citas por internet For one thing,
she cites “the broadening top” on the $BPSPX chart at 90 (meaning 90% of
stocks are “buys” on the Point & Figure Charts) as a certain sign that the index will
resolve down to 10 (meaning that only 10% of S&P stocks will be buys by the time the market bottoms).
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(Chart above from Abigail Doolittle’s website, PeakTheories.com)
fallacy of this statement is that the $BPSPX is a CLOSED END CHART. The
maximum it can reach, in theory and practice, is 100.. more helpful hints .it’s a percentage chart with 100% being maximum. In reality, once the SPX gets
to about the 90 level, it cannot go much higher because even in a very
bullish market, there will always be a few stocks out of favor and thus
comprising the other 10% of the index. The main point here is that 90
is ALWAYS GOING TO BE THE TOP on this chart, give or take a couple
points….so, for her to say this is a broadening top is a
mis-application of that concept with a chart like this!!!
OK, let’s look at another point she makes….
talks of a large symmetrical triangle on the US $ chart formed over the
last few years and a rounding bottom and a target ot 100….for one
thing, I think the symmetrical triangle is weak–it doesn’t have clear
rising and falling trend lines–to me, the pattern is more of a sideways
channel pattern, meaning its been in a trading range for a long time.
(Chart above from Abigail Doolittle’s website, PeakTheories.com)
let’s step back for a moment and think about what’s going on with the
US $–the Fed and the banks have printed trillions of dollars and
flooded the world financial system with them. This has led to a glut of
dollars, but in the current risk off market, where panicked investors
are fleeing the world’s other reserve currency (the Euro), they are all
seeking the perceived safety of US treasuries (priced in dollars). We
have a TEMPORARY situation where demand for dollars is out-pacing the
supply. I predict that this demand will subside in the not too distant
future, and when supply and demand are more equalized, the US $ will
resume its long term pattern of weakness. That’s not to say that in the
near term, the $ will continue to show strength due to this temporary
high demand situation, but once that demand subsides, the $ bubble will
be exposed for what it is. IMHO!
The rest of her arguments,
including the dollar one, are built upon past patterns that resolved in
certain ways as predicted by those patterns. She relies greatly (as do
many technicians) on
expecting the same patterns to lead to the same outcomes over and over
However, one of the brightest minds in technical analysis history,
a gent named Wyckoff who made millions in the stock market , said that there were
two major rules about TA….one of those rules was to keep an open mind
and NOT TO EXPECT that the same pattern as in years past will lead to
the same results. In other words, the market is a very shrewd animal
made up of many different views, and so not every participant in the
markets will react the same way as they did in previous periods….
I’m not saying that Abigail is wrong in her final conclusion, but I am
saying that the arguments she uses to support her analysis are not as
firm as she or others may believe.
visit So, what say I then? Well, I’m not about to go out on a limb and predict that we have just found a bottom…my charting clearly tells me that things are in a bad way, just as most technicians see. No disagreement there!
However, let me take rencontres partenariales atout france the angel’s advocate position for a moment (devils pull for bear markets and angels pull for bull markets, right?)….
So, what is the
potential direction for the upcoming week? … and I will say on this point,
I am probably a bit more optimistic than most.
http://itwixie.com/?rimotyr=site-rencontre-hors-mariage&5a8=be Let’s look at some key variables which the worry-worts and fear-mongers are ignoring….
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The major indexes have found their way down to the 200 day MA
line…this line is often a MAJOR line of importance….many a market
reversal has occurred off this line in past years. The indexes are under this line currently, but not by a large amount. Also, the 400 day SECULAR MA line is now in play, and bottoms are often found near this line. Neither should be
http://toyotadostlari.com/?pizdfer=rencontre-celibataire-femme-gratuit&6e1=49 2) The 90-10 Volume Capitulation Signal….this is
one often followed by some veteran professional traders, and when
down-side volume swamps up-side volume in a single day by more than 90%,
then you often will see a rebound and even the beginning of a strong
rally starting the say after a 90% capitulation day. On Friday, we had such a day on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchanges…the
NYSE also had a 90% capitulation on Wednesday too, but when both
indexes do that as happened Friday, you will often see a strong reversal
starting the next trading day, or within the next couple days…
keep an eye out for this! I’m not saying its a guaranteed rally to come
this week but I am saying that this market is very oversold and very
much like a boat with all of the occupants (bears and fearful investors)
lined up to one side of the boat, and all one has to do is yell “fire”
and watch the boat tip the other way as people all begin to flee the one
side they are on….yes, I’m saying a short squeeze set-up is in
place….it only needs to find a trigger!
For more insights about this potential set-up and the comments of other traders, be sure to visit our active Trader’s Forum for up to the minute thoughts!
http://www.gramus.si/ralf/4975 FOLLOW-UP: While most traders were heavily short or totally to the sidelines on June 3rd (after several days of losses including a near 300 pt loss on Friday, Ace’s suggested call for a rally proved right. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials enjoyed their best two week of year 2012 with a strong rebound 800 pt rally on the Dow which included a monstrous 280 pt Dow gain on Wednesday, June 6th. Nice call, Ace! Editor.