The uptrend line from September 2011 (which coincides with the last significant debt ceiling debate in Washington) has given way in late September after a two year run higher. Then, in the first week of October, the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern gave way. Together, these two events are significant to technicians like myself.
The break point of the Neckline was about 81, and the head reaches to
85, thus this suggests a 4 point target from the 81 break points toward a goal of 77. However, the 77 target is an intermediate one….the break of the two year up-trend line is more significant for the long run and could mean a bigger drop is in the cards ultimately. One would think that gold and silver should be doing well now, but they both still seem to be under pressure, My guess is that political manipulations are working to hold these metal prices under control so that they do not ignite further worries among general investors.
If the dollar continues to drop, as I expect, then I think that gold and silver will rocket higher. Another thought: perhaps big money traders are also containing the price while they work to accumulate more for their accounts while the debt ceiling debate rages in Washington?
Of course, it’s no secret that the US is running out of time to raise its debt ceiling limit, or possibly suffer a technical default on its bonds. Such an event should figure to decimate the dollar, if it is to occur. Most observers consider a US default a remote possibility, but I am not so sure of that thinking myself.
One other note: even though precious metals are under containment at the moment, I have noticed that the Chinese Yuan currency has been rising and appears to be ready to break out of its trading band with the US dollar….this would be very significant, I would think, in currency trading circles. Average investors can buy into the Yuan by investing in the Exchange Traded Fund with NYSE symbol CYB. I would also suggest that there may never be a better time to buy some gold or silver at this time, in case the US does default. Though gold and silver are presently contained, a break higher could occur at any time,
Even if Congress does raise the debt ceiling limit, this should still favor gold and silver in the long run since it means the dollar will continue to degrade in value over time (though a short term pullback could occur upon the news of a debt ceiling resolution before October 18th or close to that date, should that occcur). I should point out that there are some bearish patterns on precious metals charts too, so there are many who think gold is set to tumble. I don’t count myself in that camp, but be aware that could be the short term result.
So, what’s a trader or investor to do? Park your money in money markets or bank savings accounts? I am not so sure of that strategy either, as money markets and savings deposits invest in short term US debt instruments. Hmmmmmm, maybe it’s time to look at an investment in Chinese Yuan?
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