The Bollinger Bands have been running quite close to the 40 week (200 day) line for several weeks, and that combo is around Dow 9700, give or take a 100 points…so I would suggest that is the downside target for the correction….of course, there could be an overshoot which might push it down slightly further, just as da boyz did last July to drive out a lot of longs before they whipped it higher.
However, on the Weekly chart, the Dow continues to hold “the high ground”…that is, it is holding in the upper half of its bollingers, and thus another sign of support from the institutional money–which controls 80% of the money flowing thru trades…if this pattern continues, it suggests the bottom may have already been seen…or we might get one more re-test of that area…which is only at Dow 10,250 roughly.
Other hints that the Dow may be nearing a bottom come from the MACD histogram, which has rounded out a bottom and now climbing…though the histo can sometimes climb for several weeks slowly before we see the response in the market indexes…but the early move higher is a positive for the Dow.
The RSI has held up remarkably well too, and it is dominant at this time due to the weak ADX…an RSI over 50 is generally bullish.
But I suspect we may be slogging around this 10,000 to 10,500 area for a little while yet, as the overhead downtrend line from the 2007 high continues to hold the Dow in check…as well as the smouldering elements of the Fib 50 congestion area, which often leads some traders to continue to program for trading in this range, rather than allowing a new trend to develop to the high side.
The main thing to point out here, (as the Bears surely won’t!) is that the Dow remains securely above its 40 week (200 day) line…and there is no hint of a 10-40 “death cross” at this time…thus, the markets are still in bull mode…with a correction in progress.
A correction means one should raise cash by selling their non-performers and wait for the confirmation of a new bull impulse where they can re-enter into fresh trades at lower prices….playing a few shorts along the way as I have been doing is alright too, but be prepared to close down those shorts as soon as the correction appears done…don’t linger with them, or you could get whipsawed!