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October 4, 2013
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Ace
Early Warning, index, indicators, lead indicator, nymo, NYSI, sell, selloff, signal, Summation Index, technical analysis

The Summation Index is close to a market sell signal

October 4, 2013 Early Warning, index, indicators, lead indicator, nymo, NYSI, sell, selloff, signal, Summation Index, technical analysis Leave a comment

imagen de hombre solo en la playa The Summation Index ($NYSI) is an abstract oscillator followed by many professional traders. Within the course of a year’s time, it will often issue a number of buy and sell signals. However, as I see several indicators now flashing more serious warnings, I think it’s time we take a closer look at this index as the next move down could be more significant.

sites de rencontres gratuit maroc Notice
that the Summation Index  has reached overbought on the RSI,
though in my general observations with NYSI, the investor sell signal on
the current up-cycle doesn’t confirm until RSI begins to drop out of
the overbought zone (at 70 on the scale).

The Summation Index ($NYSI) measures the accumulated
readings of the McClellan Oscillator, which is widely used by pro
traders for spotting short term cyclical moves. By itself, the McCllelan measures
market breadth (advancers vs decliners), and so if the $NYSI is moving
demonstrably lower, this means that advancers are losing their edge over
time against decliners.

Even though the major indexes (Dow, S&P and Nasdaq) continue to hold their gains for the year,
keep in mind that the big money players can advance the large cap
weighted stocks higher even as most stocks begin to fall. In other
words, fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the recent rallies,
but the indexes move higher so long as the largest cap weighted stocks
continue to carry the indexes like SPX higher. (This may explain why the
Dow has not moved as well lately, because the Dow is not a cap-weighted
index–it’s a price-weighted one.)

Anyhow, notice the peaks on the NYSI…if this is the
peak for this cycle, then $NYSI has set its 2nd lower high in a
row….the 2nd lower low is already in place, thus a down-trend channel
has arisen on $NYSI. There is thus, a marked divergence from the rising
up-trend (before Friday) in the S&P and NYSE listed stocks.

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January 11, 2012
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Ace
charts, chatter, earnings yield, sell, selloff, signal, underlying action

Why I Have Never Liked SIRI as an Investment

January 11, 2012 charts, chatter, earnings yield, sell, selloff, signal, underlying action Leave a comment

Over the years, my fellow traders have tried to get me excited about SIRI (XM Siri Satellite Radio), and allow me to say that I use the service in my car when I am traveling, and I love it!

But when it comes to SIRI, the stock,  you will rarely ever hear me mention it and that’s because
the stock fails to meet one of my main criteria for stock selection
which is the size of the FLOAT.

SIRI has a float of 3,680,000,000
shares (that’s 3.68 billion for those who are mathematically
disinclined!) available to trade…and insiders hold less than 1% of the
outstanding stock.

It’s been my experience over the years that
big money is unlikely to be made in stocks with more than about 800
million shares….even 800 million is too high for my standards unless
it’s a popular stock among traders or has good insider or mutual fund
support, like possibly AAPL has.

High float stocks tend to stay
mired in a sideways trading channel for years and will rarely ever
deliver out-sized gains like I’m looking for. History is riddled with
these high float stocks that under-perform. Take a look at examples like
C, CSCO and BAC which are three that comes to mind right away, but at
least they seem to have some decent mutual fund support….still,
outside of BAC a little, none of these three stocks really attracts my
attention.

And SIRI is one of the best examples….3.7 billions
shares and very little insider holdings makes this one DEAD money in my
humble opinion. The stock has been mired in a trading channel for years
pretty much around that $2 level….sure, it might reach $2.50, but then
it stalls.

I would love to see SIRI do at least a 10-1 stock
split…get the price up over $20 and cut that float down to under 400
millions shares….then you might see the mutual funds start to buy it
up and drive the price higher???

Regards, Mike

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September 2, 2011
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Ace
capitulation, quants, Rally, sell, signal, tale, underlying action

Tale of the TICK

September 2, 2011 capitulation, quants, Rally, sell, signal, tale, underlying action Leave a comment

is lana del rey dating franco This is a re-published, popular Blog…

When talking stocks, you will sometimes here a professional trader or broker refer to click here to find out more “the TICK.” The TICK refers to an intra-day index which measures the number of stocks rising on up-ticks versus those that are falling on downticks. A tick is the price-point where the next trade goes off.

https://www.gostatewide.net/marderos/313 Example:  XYZ stock trades 100 shares at 9:30:35 am at $10.05….and a couple minutes later (say 9:32:37 am), the same stock trades 200 shares at  $10.09…or 4 cents higher. That is called an up-tick. If the same stock then makes its next trade at, say 3 cents lower, then that is a down-tick.

You can view a version of the intra-day $TICK chart on my public chart list at www.stockcharts.com under the name of AceStockTrader. 

Yes, TICK can be charted…I  prefer the 5 min and 15 min TICK charts…and I also have a daily and weekly version I like which I will show another time. On my TICK charts, I have an orange and green horizontal line. The green line is usually set at +600 and the orange line at -800. When TICK crosses either line, that is considered an overbought or oversold condition. What TICK represents are the number of upticks vs the number of downticks on the NYSE at any given point in time. When the TICK count is positive, that means that more stocks are trading higher than lower at that given moment….and vice versa when you see a negative number. Generally, you might see the TICK spike up past +600 or down past -800 only a few times a day…

TICK can swing wildly at times, and so it may seem to be difficult to parse out a pattern from TICK….this is why my recent TICK charts show moving average lines in them to spot changes in trend and direction…on the 5 min chart, I favor the 21 period line, which is basically an average for the last 105 minutes…and recently, I added an 8 period line to try and discern an early change in direction…the 8 period line is there to spot changes before they become clearly apparent to other traders.

Richard Arms, the inventor of the TRIN index has recommended using TRIN in conjunction with TICK….TRIN shows the read underlying behavior of large traders such as hedge funds and mutual funds. TRIN helps one to spot these hidden trends which may be diverging from what the general indexes show, at times. TICK is a confirmation tool to discern that what we might see with TRIN is truly happening. TRIN is basically reflective of a ratio formula, and at certain times, the ratio can fool the unknowing trader….TICK helps one to confirm that what they might see in TRIN action is true….if TRIN shows strong buying but TICK is negative, this might mean that the ratio on TRIN is mis-leading at that moment in time.

Now, back to the MA lines on TICK….generally, when TICK 21 MA reaches about -300, it has been my experience that most of the selling is done on the NYSE, and often what happens is that a bounce ensues and catches the unknowing BEARS off guard….

TICK can also help you spot divergences in the trading day…TICK migsl
Vice versa, when TICK reaches about +350 or +300 on the 21 period MA, that usually means that the last buyers are coming in (those ill-fated retail traders!), and that’s usually a good time to take profits and exit the trades–the 21 MA line works much like an oscillator for the trend and direction of the major stock market…..

When I was not working in Corporate America, I had a lot more time to watch TICK and take those profits every time it crossed up near +300…and close those bearish positions when TICK reached -300….sadly, I don’t have time to trade like that now…relying much more on the daily for that, but in this market, I have been whip-sawed a lot by trying to trade more methodically off of dailies…this has been a fast moving market that favors day-traders, not swing traders, imho.

However, for the day-trader or the swing trader who is looking for more precise entry and exit points, the 5 minute TICK in conjunction with the 21 period line can provide valuable insight into when to load up and when to exit fast moving trades. ACE

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June 23, 2011
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Ace
capitulation, quants, Rally, sell, signal, tale, underlying action

Tale of the TICK

June 23, 2011 capitulation, quants, Rally, sell, signal, tale, underlying action Leave a comment

When talking stocks, you will sometimes here a professional trader or broker refer to http://peterboroughphotographicsociety.com/primeta/7464 “the TICK.” The TICK refers to an intra-day index which measures the number of stocks rising on up-ticks versus those that are falling on downticks. A tick is the price-point where the next trade goes off.

dating apps wp8 Example:  XYZ stock trades 100 shares at 9:30:35 am at $10.05….and a couple minutes later (say 9:32:37 am), the same stock trades 200 shares at  $10.09…or 4 cents higher. That is called an up-tick. If the same stock then makes its next trade at, say 3 cents lower, then that is a down-tick.

You can view a version of the intra-day $TICK chart on my public chart list at www.stockcharts.com under the name of AceStockTrader. 

Yes, TICK can be charted…I  prefer the 5 min and 15 min TICK charts…and I also have a daily and weekly version I like which I will show another time. On my TICK charts, I have an orange and green horizontal line. The green line is usually set at +600 and the orange line at -800. When TICK crosses either line, that is considered an overbought or oversold condition. What TICK represents are the number of upticks vs the number of downticks on the NYSE at any given point in time. When the TICK count is positive, that means that more stocks are trading higher than lower at that given moment….and vice versa when you see a negative number. Generally, you might see the TICK spike up past +600 or down past -800 only a few times a day…

TICK can swing wildly at times, and so it may seem to be difficult to parse out a pattern from TICK….this is why my recent TICK charts show moving average lines in them to spot changes in trend and direction…on the 5 min chart, I favor the 21 period line, which is basically an average for the last 105 minutes…and recently, I added an 8 period line to try and discern an early change in direction…the 8 period line is there to spot changes before they become clearly apparent to other traders.

Richard Arms, the inventor of the TRIN index has recommended using TRIN in conjunction with TICK….TRIN shows the Go Here underlying behavior of large traders such as hedge funds and mutual funds. TRIN helps one to spot these hidden trends which may be diverging from what the general indexes show, at times. TICK is a confirmation tool to discern that what we might see with TRIN is truly happening. TRIN is basically reflective of a ratio formula, and at certain times, the ratio can fool the unknowing trader….TICK helps one to confirm that what they might see in TRIN action is true….if TRIN shows strong buying but TICK is negative, this might mean that the ratio on TRIN is mis-leading at that moment in time.

Now, back to the MA lines on TICK….generally, when TICK 21 MA reaches about -300, it has been my experience that most of the selling is done on the NYSE, and often what happens is that a bounce ensues and catches the unknowing BEARS off guard….

TICK can also help you spot divergences in the trading day…TICK might begin to rise before the major indexes such as the Dow or NYA begin to move…or vice versa. Like TRIN, it captures the movements behind the scenes among all NYSE stocks even as big cap stocks continue to get propped up to keep the major indexes like the Dow looking  flush.

Vice versa, when TICK reaches about +350 or +300 on the 21 period MA, that usually means that the last buyers are coming in (those ill-fated retail traders!), and that’s usually a good time to take profits and exit the trades–the 21 MA line works much like an oscillator for the trend and direction of the major stock market…..

When I was not working in Corporate America, I had a lot more time to watch TICK and take those profits every time it crossed up near +300…and close those bearish positions when TICK reached -300….sadly, I don’t have time to trade like that now…relying much more on the daily for that, but in this market, I have been whip-sawed a lot by trying to trade more methodically off of dailies…this has been a fast moving market that favors day-traders, not swing traders, imho.

However, for the day-trader or the swing trader who is looking for more precise entry and exit points, the 5 minute TICK in conjunction with the 21 period line can provide valuable insight into when to load up and when to exit fast moving trades. ACE

next Are you looking for more insights on TICK and TRIN? Then visit ACE’s message forum where active traders post their trades and thoughts on these subjects and more. The message board is hosted and moderated by ACE.

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June 11, 2010
Ace
adx, buy, RSI, sell, stocks

Akamai Technologies on the Chart

June 11, 2010 adx, buy, RSI, sell, stocks

Someone asked me about Akamai Technologies (AKAM)…I saw it had a strong move today, and I was wincing a little because it’s now at a higher price than where I took profits on it! Yet, I think this move is going to be short-lived…I can see that more clearly in the Weekly chart on AKAM…it is quite overbought, though there is little to hint that it is about to turn back…but the ADX is at a multi-year high of almost 70! The ADX rarely ever gets beyond 70, so I think the RoBots will see that in their algorithms and begin to sell…also, look at the RSI in overbought situation for weeks!

Again, there’s not much to say sell at the moment in terms of triggers…indeed, the StochRSI says “buy” for this week…so it’s a short term buy…but somewhere around $44 or $45, I think will turn back and fall into the Fib congestion again (the perma-Bears would say it will keep falling!…but I don’t quite see that yet…lol!)…but I expect it to form a base in the Fib channel from somewhere between $28 and $40 over the summer…

Like I say, I rode it on up from around $24 to $38 where a stop loss threw me out…I have had a bid in at $32 to buy it back, but so far, no luck…but the Weekly is telling me to be patient, and it may well come back to me! Regards, Ace

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